Greed and Capitalism

What kind of society isn't structured on greed? The problem of social organization is how to set up an arrangement under which greed will do the least harm; capitalism is that kind of a system.
- Milton Friedman

Friday, January 30, 2015

Charles Brandes on Value Investing

Charles Brandes quote
From Brandes on Value:
With each ebb and flow, Mr. Market entices investors with the “quick and the new,” leading them to believe that this time is very different, and that we’ve never seen the likes of this before. His pattern of tricks changes slightly each time, but usually only enough to mine the one constant: investor behavior. Why doesn’t investor behavior change? We like to think it would, especially when you look at all the lessons of past markets. Short-term thinking, however, is human nature—it’s in our DNA. It’s how we are wired. We tend to process decisions relatively quickly based on what we see in front of us at the moment, or on what we believe others may be seeing. Such irrational behavior is ages old and is based on primal instincts like fear—we are afraid of either getting hurt or missing out. Many years later, this behavioralism was recognized as a key feature of value investing.

Links
A Dozen Things Learned from Joel Greenblatt about Value Investing (LINK)
Related books: The Little Book That Still Beats the Market and You Can Be a Stock Market Genius
Related video: Joel Greenblatt on WealthTrack
Macau High Rollers Leaving For Philippines and Vietnam [H/T @Wexboy_Value] (LINK)

Disruption Is Not About Slaying Giants but about Serving New Customers (LINK)

Book review of Michael Shermer's latest, The Moral Arc: How Science and Reason Lead Humanity toward Truth, Justice, and Freedom (LINK)





....................

Related link: Charles Brandes' Q4 2014 Commentary


 

Milton Friedman

retweeted
The way you solve things is by making it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right things.
 
 
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Sunday, January 25, 2015

Investment Trends 2015

2014 Was the Year of Impact Investing: What’s Next For 2015?

3p Contributor | Friday January 23rd, 2015 |
Beth Sirull,
By Beth Sirull

Last year, here on TriplePundit, I proclaimed 2014 the Year of Impact Investing. Whether it was or not — and what that would really mean — is open to argument. Clearly, a lot happened in the U.S. and around the world — and a lot of impact capital was deployed — in 2014.

Capital deployed in 2014

Accurate estimates of the sheer volume of impact capital deployed in 2014 are difficult to come by.

Starting with the broader universe of socially-responsible investing, the Forum for Sustainable and Responsible Investment (USSIF), in its 2014 Report on US Sustainable, Responsible and Impact Investing Trends, notes that nearly $7 trillion in U.S.-domiciled assets employ at least one socially-responsible investment (SRI) strategy.

This up 40 percent from $3.74 trillion in 2012.

These SRI strategies include: incorporating environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors into investment decision making; shareholder advocacy; direct investing for measurable impact; or some combination.

But SRI funds and impact investing are not perfect overlays for one another. Impact investing requires not just the intention to affect a specific social change, but also the commitment to measure and report on that positive social change.

SRI efforts to screen out particular ills do not automatically create positive social impact, certainly not a measurable one. ESG screening, a key component of SRI, is not impact investing.

Still, the two are correlated and the substantial, documented growth in SRI funds speaks to the growth of impact funds as well.

Indeed, USSIF reports that community investments combined with socially-responsible alternative investments — private equity, hedge funds, property funds and other private market vehicles more likely to be impact investments targeting direct, measurable social impact — have grown over 40 percent since 2012, to approximately $300 billion in 2014.

Clearly that’s a lot of investment activity.

Policy intertwined with investment growth

It’s not just the increase in impact dollars invested that portends the rise of impact investing; it’s also the activity in the public policy sphere.

While policy is often an afterthought for investors, in fact, policy sets and manages the stage on which investors invest.

In their recent blog, Is Social Impact Investing the Next Venture Capital?, Sir Ronald Cohen and Matt Bannick remind us all of the critical role that policy played in unleashing venture capital and note that the same can be true for impact investing.

But will it be?

A lot happened in impact investing policy in 2014, but much more needs to happen this year.

The G8 Taskforce on Social Impact Investing, originally convened at the 2013 G8 Summit, released its final report, Impact Investment: The Invisible Heart of Markets in 2014.

This report is the cumulative effort of hundreds of people from around the world, with the backing of the G8 governments —England, France, Canada, Italy, Japan, Germany and the United States, as well as Australia — and outlines what policymakers can do to encourage investors to put money to work in financially sensible (given a variety of investor profiles), and socially impactful, ways.

Alongside the global effort, each of the member countries formed a National Advisory Board on Impact Investing (NAB). Each NAB member country released a National Advisory Board report.

These are all valuable inputs to help policymakers around the world guide markets to ensure that private dollars are deployed for financial return and public good wherever possible.

2015 actions and field building

2014 IIPC Report Cover

Here’s the problem, which leads to what has to happen in 2015 to keep this momentum going.

The Global Taskforce report and the seven country NAB reports in combination contain more than 500 total recommendations.

The Global Taskforce report alone presents eight high-level ideas, along with another 25 more specific recommendations.

The United States NAB report details no fewer than 90 ideas. All of these are great ideas — and that doesn’t even take into account the hundreds that fell to the cutting room floor.

At the end of 2014, we saw the beginnings of an effort to make sense of this information.

In November, the Global Learning Exchange on Impact Investing (co-convened and hosted by Pacific Community Ventures), released Impact Investing Policy in 2014: A Global Snapshot.

What differentiates this report from all the others is that it begins to shift the question from “What should governments do?” to “What have governments done to encourage impact investing and what has happened as a result?”

In 2015, we need to take all these ideas that have been thrown up against the wall and start making sense of it all.

We need to ask and get answers to questions like:
  • Which of these policy ideas have been tried somewhere in the world? What happened? What can be learned and applied elsewhere? Surely some will be abysmal failures. How can we share these failures so they are not repeated in other geographic settings?
  • Which ideas are likely to be most impactful? Which of these ideas are pipe dreams and which stand a real chance of being adopted somewhere? Analyzing what policies address gaps in the market versus those that work alongside other policies already in place is a useful place to start the prioritization.
  • What’s being done to make sure that existing (and new) policies actually get implemented and widely used to maximize impact? Changing policy alone is often not enough to change. Policy changes are a necessary but sometimes insufficient condition. Strengthening networks that build practitioner awareness and educate investors, investees, and asset managers, among others is also critical.
  • And what about the many ideas that didn’t make the reports? Should some of these be picked up off the cutting room floor?
These are important questions for all market leaders – foundation heads, policymakers, leading advocates, and savvy investors alike – who are developing their strategies to help grow impact investing.

While these many reports are very useful, we mustn’t allow ourselves to be lulled into thinking that the field-building phase of impact investing is over.

In truth, it has just begun. If 2014 was the Year of Impact Investing, 2015 must be The Year of Strategic Prioritizing in Impact Investing.

It’s already late January. Let’s get started.

Beth Sirull is president of Pacific Community Ventures, whose mission is to create jobs and economic opportunities in low income communities through the direct support of small business and entrepreneurship as well as by promoting policies that drive investment in underserved communities.

PCV is an impact investor providing capital directly to small businesses. The organization also works to build the capacity of these small companies to accept and deploy impact capital effectively.



Source: http://www.triplepundit.com/2015/01/2014-year-impact-investing-whats-next-2015/?


Saturday, January 24, 2015

Questor Technology Inc.

QST.V
Questor Technology Inc.
methane
emissions

Seeing this interview aroused my interest in this company: (QST-V)

As the North America looks to crack down on methane emissions from oil and gas producers, Questor Technology's incinerators turn the stuff into useful energy
 
 NEWS: Questor Technology Inc. President & CEO Audrey Mascarenhas featured on BNN January 16th 2015 discussing current market opportunities. (click to view in new window)

Questor Technology Inc. is the industry leader in providing high efficiency, waste gas incinerators.

For over twenty years, Questor has been providing our clients with innovative and cost effective clean air solutions in both permanent facilities as well as portable applications.

Specializing in the effective management of H2S, VOCs and BTEX gases, Questor incinerators are used worldwide in a variety of applications.

Questor’s patented incineration technology offers a combustion efficiency >99.99% while providing significant operational savings, reduced capital costs and regulatory compliance.



Performance Overview

  • Positive cash flow last six years-recent growth has been internally financed
  • Revenue growth of over 700% over the past 6 years
  • Developed a strong profitable rental business
  • Recognized as a leader in the safe and efficient combustion of H2S


    The Company

    Questor is an international environmental oilfield services provider founded in late 1994 and headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada with a field office located in Grande Prairie, Alberta.

The Company is focused on clean air technologies with activities in Canada, the United States, Europe and Asia. Questor designs and fabricates high combustion efficiency waste gas incinerators for sale or for use on a rental basis and also provides combustion-related oilfield services.

The Company’s proprietary incinerator technology destroys noxious or toxic hydrocarbon gases at 99.99% efficiency while enabling regulatory compliance, environmental protection, public confidence and reduced operating costs for customers.

The technology creates an opportunity to utilize the heat generated from efficient combustion.

Questor is recognized for its particular expertise in the combustion of sour gas (H 2 S).

While the Company’s current customer base is primarily in the crude oil and natural gas industry,
this technology is applicable to other industries such as landfills, water and sewage treatment, tire recycling and agriculture.


Questor trades on the TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol “QST”.






Link: http://www.questortech.com/


 

Greed bad for Democracy

 
 
 
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Recommended Reading

Useful Links and Other Recommended Reading

Central Banks according to:


In central banking as in diplomacy, style, conservative tailoring, and an easy association with the affluent count greatly, and results far much less.

- J. K. Galbraith.



 “There’s danger in just shoveling out money to people who say,‘My life is a little harder than it used to be, at a certain place you’ve got to say to the people, ‘Suck it in and cope, buddy. Suck it in and cope.’”

- Charlie Munger.


Oil Markets

Will Saudi Arabia’s new King Salman change the late King Abdullah’s oil policy and cut oil production to raise the oil price? No, says Bloomberg, at least for now, though the news of King Abdullah’s death made the oil shorts greatly nervous forcing the weak into covering. At 79 and reportedly in poor health, Saudi Arabia’s aged leadership adds yet more uncertainty into a Middle East increasingly in violent turmoil. For now the price of Brent crude is still struggling to hold just below 50. 

Saudi Arabia’s New King Will Likely Stick With Current Oil Policy

 
King Salman, Saudi Arabia’s new ruler, will probably stick to the oil policy of his predecessor, the late King Abdullah, maintaining production levels to preserve market share even at the cost of depressing prices.

A key indicator will be whether Salman, 79, retains the oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, who has driven decision-making since 1995. Al-Naimi, who turns 80 this year, has said he’d like to devote more time to his other job as the chairman of the science and technology university named after the late sovereign.

With production of 9.5 million barrels a day and exports of 7 million a day, Saudi Arabia accounts for more than a 10th of global supply and a fifth of the crude sold internationally.

The kingdom’s refusal to surrender market share to rising U.S. production has contributed to the worst price slump since the global financial crisis of 2008.

“The Saudi leadership has already taken the tough decision to live with lower oil prices,” Florence Eid-Oakden, the chief economist at Arabia Monitor, a London-based consultant, said by phone. “Naimi is well-established, he’s respected and there shouldn’t be a change as long as the current cabinet is in place.”

Salman, in his previous capacity as crown prince, read a speech on behalf of the monarch on Jan. 6 that confirmed the continuity of Saudi oil policy in the face of market “tensions” caused by slow growth in the global economy.
More
 

Oil fell almost 50 percent last year as the U.S. pumped at the fastest rate in more than three decades and OPEC resisted calls to cut output. Crude stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, rose by 10.1 million barrels through Jan. 16, the Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday. That was the biggest volume gain since March 2001.
More
 
Oil Drillers ‘Going to Die’in 2Q on Crude Price Swoon
Jan 22, 2015 9:39 PM GMT
Oil drillers will begin collapsing under the weight of lower crude prices during the second quarter and energy explorers who employ them will shortly follow, according to Conway Mackenzie Inc., the largest U.S. restructuring firm.

Companies that drill wells and manage fields on behalf of oil producers will be the first to fall after the benchmark American crude, West Texas Intermediate, lost 57 percent of its value in seven months, said John T. Young, whose firm led the city of Detroit through its 2013 bankruptcy.

Oil companies have slashed thousands of jobs, delayed billions of dollars in projects and dropped or scaled back expansion plans in response to the prolonged rout in crude prices. For oilfield service providers that test wells and line the holes with steel and cement, the impact of price reductions forced upon them by explorers will start to pinch hard during the second quarter, Young said Thursday.

“The second quarter is going to be devastating for the service companies,”Young said in a telephone interview from Houston. “There are certainly companies that are going to die.”
More

 
 
 
 
 

Friday, January 23, 2015

Oil and Gas Analysis

Links
For some good info on the current oil and gas industry and to learn about a decent business, check out the TGS-Nopec Capital Markets Day 2015 (LINK)

A Few Savvy Investors Had Swiss Central Bank Figured Out (LINK)

The Age of Unicorns (LINK)

The Difference Between A Joke And A Billion Dollar Company Isn’t As Big As You’d Think (LINK)

Book of the day: The Genome War: How Craig Venter Tried to Capture the Code of Life and Save the World
 
Source: http://www.valueinvestingworld.com/
 
 

SpaceX raises $1 billion


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TechCrunch@TechCrunch  

SpaceX, the space exploration startup helmed by Elon Musk, confirms it has raised $1B
 
 
 
 

Leadership

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Harvard Biz Review@HarvardBiz 
A "one-size-fits-all" leadership development program won't work
 
 
 
 
 
 

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Price Slump Tests Bitcoin’s Self-Correcting Economics

MIT Tech Review

Plight of Bitcoin Miners Tests the Digital Currency's Self-Regulating...

A crash in the value of Bitcoin has made it too expensive for some companies to “mine” the currency.
 
MIT Tech Review@techreview27 minutes ago
Price Slump Tests Bitcoin’s Self-Correcting Economics
 
 
 
 
 
 

Monday, January 19, 2015

Underperformance by Mutual Funds

When Funds Insult Their Investors

Posted by on Dec 29, 2014 in Blog, Columns, Featured |
To the injury of chronic underperformance, mutual funds are adding the insult of unnecessarily high taxes.
The week of Dec. 15, dozens of mutual funds paid out taxable gains to their shareholders—even as the worst year of fund returns relative to market averages in modern history drew to a close.
As of Dec. 19, more than 79% of U.S. stock funds had failed to beat their market benchmarks for the year, compared with the average of 59% over the previous 25 years, according to investment-research firm Morningstar. As if that weren’t bad enough, investors in many underperforming funds will find themselves owing whopping tax bills without having sold a share. .........

Read More: http://www.jasonzweig.com/when-funds-insult-their-investors/

 
 
Source: http://www.jasonzweig.com/category/blog/
 
 
 
 
 

Economist Blogs

Read Some Economics Blogs

Research Resources

Advanced Research

If you’re a junkie for investment research and have a love of hard arguments and sophisticated mathematics, these sites are full of good stuff. But don’t be embarrassed if you can’t make head nor tail of what you see there! Most people don’t really need to understand all this technical stuff, although it can be lots of fun for anyone with a nerdy streak.

1. ECONOMIC GEEKS
Some good places to hunt down home pages for finance professors and other economic geeks:
http://www.cob.ohio-state.edu/~fin/findir/
http://www.amherst.edu/~jsirons/ewwp.html
http://rfe.wustl.edu/EconFAQ.html
2. FISHER COLLEGE OF BUSINESS RESOURCES
The department of finance at Ohio State (which oversees the prestigious Journal of Finance) runs a website with links to hundreds of academic research centers around the world. If you’re interested in finding out what’s going on anywhere inside the ivory tower, this is a great place to start:
http://fisher.osu.edu/departments/finance/resources/
3. SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH NETWORK
If, like me, you’re a hard-core researchivore, you might be interested in subscribing to an academic service, the Social Science Research Network, that sends e-mail notification of new “working papers” by economists, psychologists, historians, and other scholars. For propeller-heads only:
www.ssrn.com
4. NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
A leading institution that funds and publishes academic research in economics and finance is the National Bureau of Economic Research. These guys even have what passes for a sense of humor among economists: a recent paper documented that there’s a correlation between the price of alcohol and the rates of violence on college campuses. Among the broader areas covered: behavioral finance, stock and bond valuation, business history, international markets, pension and retirement issues, questions in public policy:
www.nber.org
5. BILL SCHWERT @ UNIVERSITY OF ROCHESTER
Bill Schwert at the University of Rochester has put together a website that’s a rich storehouse of authoritative insights about market efficiency, stock price volatility, the performance of IPOs, the behavior of stocks that go through mergers or takeovers, and seasonal patterns in stock returns. Schwert also has the courtesy to make much of his raw data available for those who are curious or would like to use it for their own purposes. His research is impeccable; his papers are complex but full of elegant charts that help make market history understandable.
http://schwert.ssb.rochester.edu/papers.htm
http://schwert.ssb.rochester.edu/gws.htm
6. WILLIAM BERNSTEIN’S EFFICIENT FRONTIER
William Bernstein, a neurologist who moonlights as a financial planner, has an extraordinarily informative site covering asset allocation, market efficiency and portfolio theory.
http://www.efficientfrontier.com
7. WILL GOETZMANN @ YALE UNIVERSITY
Will Goetzmann, professor of finance at Yale University’s School of Management, has a terrific home page full of thought-provoking research on mutual funds and financial markets worldwide.
http://viking.som.yale.edu/
8. MEIR STATMAN @ SANTA CLARA UNIVERSITY
As creative as he is productive, finance professor Meir Statman of Santa Clara University makes dozens of his papers available for free download. Covering everything from diversification to the emotional pitfalls of hindsight and regret, they’re amply rewarding for advanced investors.
http://lsb.scu.edu/finance/faculty/Statman/Default.htm
http://lsb.scu.edu/finance/faculty/Statman/articles.htm
9. TERRY ODEAN @ UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY
Terry Odean of the University of California at Berkeley has done groundbreaking research showing how well individual investors actually fare in the real world. (Hint: We’re not as great as we think.) He shows definitively that those who trade less outperform those who trade more — and that women outperform men as investors. If you want to learn what the experience of other people can teach you about your own likely performance, this is an excellent place to start.
http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/
http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/Current%20Research.htm

Calculators

It’s still a good idea to keep your pocket calculator handy and a fully-loaded version of Excel on your hard drive, but the Internet makes lots of good calculators available for free. Here are some I’ve found especially useful.
1. INFLATION CALCULATORS
What’s the value in today’s dollars of an amount from the past? How much was $1.00 in today’s money worth a hundred years ago? These sites calculate how inflation changes the purchasing power of money over time.
A link list of inflation calculators compiled by Roy Davies, a British science librarian and son of an eminent financial historian. Here you can find the current value of such things as spices in London in 1438 or the Norwegian krone back to 1865:
http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/current/howmuch.html
http://www.orst.edu/dept/pol_sci/fac/sahr/sahr.htm
http://eh.net/ehresources/howmuch/dollarq.php
http://www.westegg.com/inflation/
2. FINANCIAL CALCULATORS (MISCELLANEOUS)
Concisely annotated, this exhaustive (and sometimes exhausting) clearinghouse site may be the most complete directory of financial calculators anywhere on the Web. I recommend it as the finder of last, not first, resort; chances are, whatever you’re looking for is here, but it’s best to use this site for searching only when nothing else has worked:
http://www.martindalecenter.com/Calculators1A_1_Finance.html
3. EXPENSE CALCULATORS
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission offers a cost calculator for mutual fund investors. This relatively crude tool requires you to input the fund’s expenses yourself (the SEC asks you to look them up in the fund’s prospectus!); no allowance is made for the fund’s own brokerage costs; the prompts abound with jargon like “deferred sales charge”; and, most irksomely of all, each item of data you enter summons up a new screen. Andrew Tobias’ www.personalfund.com is better, but requires paid registration. At least the SEC calculator is free:
http://www.sec.gov/investor/tools/mfcc/get-started


Jason Zweig became a personal finance columnist for The Wall Street Journal in 2008. He was a senior writer for Money magazine and a guest columnist for Time magazine and cnn.com. He is the author of Your Money and Your Brain (Simon & Schuster, 2007), one of the first books to explore the neuroscience of investing. Zweig is also the editor of the revised edition of Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor (HarperCollins, 2003), the classic text that Warren Buffett has described as “by far the best book about investing ever written.”

SourceL http://www.jasonzweig.com/resources/


 

Daniel Kahneman on owning stocks



"If owning stocks is a long-term project for you, following their changes constantly is a very, very bad idea. Its the worst possible thing you can do, because people are so sensitive to short-term losses. If you count your money every day, youll be miserable."
----Daniel Kahneman, Princeton professor of psychology, in Jason Zweig, Do You Sabotage Yourself? Money Magazine, May, 2001, p. 78.

 

Sunday, January 18, 2015

Global Infrastructure Investment: Timing Is Everything (And Now Is The Time)




Increase of 1% of GDP spending on could add 730k jobs to US economy in 2015.
 
 
 

(Editor's note: In the original version of this article, published on Jan. 13, 2015, the projected job gains listed in table 1 for Asia-Pacific countries were incorrect. A corrected version follows.)

With global infrastructure investment needs now in the tens of trillions of dollars--figures that are essentially incomprehensible to most of us--it's easy to see the problem as insurmountable. The result is that too often, we forget that even a relatively small increase in spending on infrastructure can yield outsized returns--especially if investments are executed in a wise, targeted way.

And these returns aren't just for lenders, who often enjoy lower default rates and higher yields for infrastructure projects than they might reap from similarly rated corporate debt--especially in developed markets. Economies will also generally benefit from the so-called "multiplier effect" when they promote such investments, with each dollar of spending (again, when deployed judiciously) translating into much greater gains in terms of GDP.

 
www.globalcreditportal.com/ratingsdirect/renderArticle.do?articleId=1379004&SctArtId=290029&from=CM&nsl_code=WEEK&sourceObjectId=8990810&sourceRevId=1&fee_ind=N&exp_date=20150120-10:01:52&sf6991512=1

Ten K Wizard

This website is mentioned in Lewis' book: Michael Lewis -  The Big Short


Morningstar

Full-text searches of global company filings

Morningstar Document Research streamlines public company research by providing navigation tools for its global filings database. Users can choose to search by keyword with the help of multiple filters or use advanced multi-criteria queries to pinpoint content within a document. The pre-formulated searches in Knowledge Base jumpstart the search process for hot topics and industry-specific issues. Users can also save searches and automatically receive real-time filings alerts.

Researchers can use this online resource to quickly search for information used in addressing SEC regulatory and GAAP reporting requirements, drafting legal agreements, due diligence, compensation benchmarking and competitive intelligence.

It’s time to end financial advisers’ 1% fees


Jason ZweigVerified account@jasonzweigwsj
Jonathan Clements: It’s time to end financial advisers’ 1% fees http://on.wsj.com/1xhBatF via @WSJ
Wall Street Journal

It’s Time to End Financial Advisers’ 1% Fees

By Wall Street Journal@WSJ
Jonathan Clements says traditional advisers need to beef up their offering or risk losing clients to low-cost online advisers.




50,000 Wall Street jobs cut


There’s blood on the Street.

In a wild swing of the ax that has shocked many pundits, Wall Street’s biggest banks have slashed nearly 50,000 jobs, and bonuses and expense money are being cut as profit opportunities dry up.

And there’s no easy way out, analysts say, because the Fed’s quantitative easing that once rescued the financial system with trillions of cheap dollars is — at least for now — history.

But while some analysts were unnerved by the carnage announced by banks last week during their earnings calls, the warning signs were there before — from lower trading and commodities revenues to currency risks and long-term interest rates that have trended lower.

The fourth quarter saw thousands more workers fired. Total reductions for 2014 were about 20,000 at Brian Moynihan’s Bank of America; 10,000 at Citigroup led by Michael Corbat; and 10,000 at Jaime Dimon’s JP Morgan. Morgan Stanley reports on Tuesday.

Many job losses were already flagged — attributed, for example, to a decline in servicing of delinquent loans as banks cleared troubled mortgages. But analysts also see brutal cost-cutting.
“Look, I think head count in the banking industry is likely to decline,” said CLSA investment group bank analyst Mike Mayo. “And if this environment remains, headcount would get significantly reduced.”

By Mayo’s calculations, bank revenues are the weakest in eight decades, a shocking throwback to the Great Depression.
And the carnage is ongoing as global growth slows and commodity prices and currency movement roil the markets.

“I think there have been heavy potential and paper losses at this point. Clearly, nobody bet properly on oil — nobody thought it was going to be below 50 a barrel,” said Tim Quast, president of market analytics firm ModernIR.

Even mighty Goldman Sachs didn’t escape last week’s destruction. Although the firm reported fourth-quarter earnings a tad better than forecast on Friday, that came from painful expense-shearing as revenues, hurt by a plunge in bond trading, posted a nauseating double-digit decline. Declines in bond activity also rocked JPMorgan, Citigroup and Bank of America.
Filed under,

Source:
http://nypost.com/2015/01/17/50000-wall-street-jobs-cut/



 

BP fined for Oil Spill into Gulf of Mexico


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This week saw a ruling in the case against BP on the final amount spilled into the Gulf of Mexico following the Deepwater Horizon incident. Despite government calculations of 4.2 million barrels, Judge Carl Barbier judged that 3.19 million barrels were spilled into the ocean, thus reducing the maximum potential penalty that could be imposed on the British company.

The final amount of fines will be decided at trial next week with the law allowing for a maximum penalty of $4,300 per barrel, or $13.7 billion, down from a potential maximum of $18 billion.

So far, BP has paid out over $28 billion in clean up and claims, with $3.5 billion currently set aside to handle the first installment once the trial has been concluded. 



Wall Street Journal@WSJ
As BP faces $13.7 billion in fines, low oil prices hurt—but could help in court (Photo: AP)
 
 
 
 

Michael Lewis The Big Short (Part 1and 2)



 
 

 
 
 
 

Spending Cuts in Oil and Gas Industry





OilPrice Intelligence Report: Oil Majors Taking Ruthless Measures To Survive




Across the board, many oil majors are taking the butcher’s knife to operations, cutting jobs and capex in unprecedented numbers. Spending on global exploration and production could
fall over 30 percent this year, the greatest drop since 1986, should markets remain depressed. 

Bank of America are predicting Brent futures to fall to $31 by the end of the first quarter this year, over $5 below the lows of the 2008 financial crisis, citing rapidly growing global inventories as the cause of such a substantial drop. 

News such as this has spurred the latest round of massive cutbacks across most sectors in the oil and gas industry.  

BP will cut 300 jobs in Scotland with ConocoPhillips cutting 230 in Britain overall, Suncor Energy will reduce staff by 1000, while Schlumberger expects to axe over 9000 jobs in total this year. Continental Resources slashed its spending for 2015 by 41 percent last month, while Range Resources Corp. reduced theirs by 33 percent. Shell has cancelled a $6.5 million project in Qatar and Statoil has shelved exploration plans in Greenland. However, it’s not all bad news, at least for one major oil producer.

 

In other news, one major producing nation that suffers from the oil price crisis more than most may have been caught red-handed this week. Reports are emerging from the U.A.E. that Iran is attempting to disguise crude export shipments destined for countries that are prohibited from receiving Iranian oil under U.S-led sanctions. 

Global ship insurers are claiming that sophisticated operations have been ongoing offshore that involve the transfer of cargoes between tankers. 

If these reports are confirmed, this will do Iran no favors in its ongoing negotiations with the P5+1 regarding its nuclear energy program. It is unclear whether the news would have impacted a meeting between U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and the Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Paris this morning, which lasted only an hour, but Iran is already treading on thin ice as U.S lawmakers consider a new wave of sanctions against the nation.

Finally, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is continuing his efforts to
rally both OPEC and Non-OPEC producers to take action to resolve the current precipitous oil price slide. 

His worldwide tour brought him to Russia this week, where he received support from Vladimir Putin as well as from several Russian companies, who have agreed to increase investment in joint venture companies based in Venezuela’s Orinoco oil region, though by how much is as yet unclear. 

Venezuela is one of the top ten producing nations in the world and is estimated to have the largest crude reserves in the world. It relies on oil exports for approximately 90 percent of its foreign currency earnings and as a result of this, the state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela has announced plans to invest $302 billion over the next five years in the hopes of reaching output levels of 6 million barrels a day. 

However, the cash-strapped country’s financial burdens and the ever-present threat of default, may mean that such ambitious plans to double its output may never come to fruition especially in light of the carnage wreaked by falling oil prices.  

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Global Energy Advisory - 16th January 2015

Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions

• Mexico's state-run Pemex is in talks with the US Commerce Department to import 100,000 barrels per day of light crude to raise Mexico's gasoline production and boost its refineries. In return, Pemex would send its heavy oil to US Gulf Coast refineries. This would represent another step towards subtly easing the US ban on oil exports. Pemex’s proposal could have the benefit of reducing transportation costs and improve refining margins—at the same time maximizing refining potential in both countries.

• Egypt will seal a deal with Russia's Gazprom for the company to supply it with LNG shipments later this month. If successful, the Gazprom deal would be the second LNG import agreement since Egypt finalized a deal for the necessary import infrastructure in November. Egypt signed an agreement with Algeria for six LNG cargoes in late December.

• Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is seeking several billion dollars from Qatari lenders to fill a budget gap created by slumping oil prices. This follows similar announcements of deals Venezuela made in recent weeks—most notably, $20 billion in Chinese investment and a deal with Iran to finance housing for the poor.

• Malaysia’s Sona Petroleum Bhd has scrapped plans to buy a stake in two oil and gas blocks from London-listed oil exploration and production firm Salamander Energy Plc in the Gulf of Thailand for $280 million.

Regulations & Litigation

• Brazil’s state-run Petrobras has recently imposed a temporary ban on EPC majors engaged in kickback scandals. In a regulatory filing, Petrobras disclosed a blacklist of 23 companies that includes Brazil’s biggest contractors Odebrecht SA, Camargo Correa SA and Andrade Gutierrez SA. The measure aims to protect the state-run company’s image and finances, according to the Petrobras. OAS, one of the EPC majors in the scheme, has missed bond payments, prompting credit agencies to cut its rating.

• Eight US Senators introduced legislation that would accelerate the approval process for LNG exports to countries that do not have free trade agreements with the US. It specifically requires the Secretary of Energy to make a decision on any LNG export application within 45 days after the environmental review document for the project is published. Three key components of the LNG Permitting Certainty and Transparency Act are: (1) The Secretary of Energy will be required to make a decision on any LNG export application within 45 days from the time FERC or the US Maritime Administration publishes the environmental review document for a project; (2) The bill would provide an applicant with expedited judicial review if the Energy Secretary does not act within 45 days or if the project is challenged on legal grounds; (3) The act would require LNG exporters to disclose the country or countries to which LNG has been exported and mandate that the Energy Secretary make this information publicly available.

• The Indonesian Trade Ministry has issued a new regulation to enforce tighter control of oil and gas imports and exports as part of the government’s program to eliminate so-called mafia practices in the country’s oil and gas business. Under the new regulation, companies involved in oil and gas export and import activities should be registered with the ministry and will be subject to verification by an independent surveyor to be able to obtain export and import permits. The newly established Oil and Gas Management Reform Team recently recommended the government dismantle the authority given to Pertamina Energy Trading Ltd. (Petral) to handle the country’s oil and gas trade. The company is allowed to operate but is no longer allowed to handle oil and gas exports and imports. Petral has been accused of being an instrument of cartel-like operations in the oil and gas sector.

Discovery & Development

• Statoil has won approval from Norway’s Petroleum Safety Authority (PSA) to drill an exploration well named Knappen in the North Sea. The company is the operator for exploration licences PL 072 D in block 16/7 in the Central North Sea. Drilling of well 16/7-11 will begin in February and in the event of a discovery a sidetrack will also be drilled and the well will be production tested. The well will be drilled by the Songa Trym, which had been temporarily suspended by Statoil last year. The company had issued a postponement period for a number of contracts due to higher costs and low profitability. However the Norwegian company announced shortly after it would resume operations this month. It had been temporarily out of use at a suspension rate of $279,000 per day.

• Serbia’s NIS oil company (majority owned by Gazprom) will invest $384 million this year in new projects, including refinery modernization. NIS has two refineries in Serbia and produces 1.7 million tons of oil equivalent per year, operating fields in Serbia, Angola and Bosnia. Gazprom Neft owns 56.15% of NIS, while 29.88% is owned by the Serbian government.

• Lion Petroleum, a wholly owned Kenyan subsidiary of Canadian
Taipan Resources, has begun drilling at its Badada-1 well in Block 2B of Kenya’s Mandera Basin, despite the slump in oil prices. We continue to maintain that Kenya is one of the venues that will withstand the oil price slump and prove to be a highly valuable strategic long-term play for investors.

• Canadian pipeline giant Enbridge will build, own and operate a new crude oil pipeline in the Gulf of Mexico, which will connect the planned Hess-operated Stampede development to an existing third-party pipeline system. The pipeline will cost an estimated $130 million and is scheduled to be online in 2018. The Stampede development, which the pipeline will service, connects the Knotty Head and Pony developments in the US Gulf of Mexico’s Green Canyon area. The pipeline will be approximately 25 kilometers long and it will be approximately 3,500 feet below water. We are still not privy to its potential capacity.

• UK-listed Afren’s shares have slumped after announcing that there are no proven or probably reserves at its Barda Rash oilfield in Iraqi Kurdistan. The company has essentially scratched 190 million barrels of oil of gross proven plus probable reserves from Barda Rash. It also had to cut Barda Rash contingent resources to around 250 mmbbls from 1,243 mmbbls.

Company Updates

• Texas oil firm WBH Energy announced it was filing for bankruptcy last week, and this is likely just the first of other small players to come in response to lower oil prices. WBH Energy cited debt of between $10 and $50 million and a lender who refused to advance the company more money as the principal reasons for its decision.


Over 20,000 small and midsize companies drive the oil and gas production boom in the US, producing in excess of 75% of the US's O&G output, according to the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research's February 2014 Power and Growth Initiative Report.

• Vietnamese oil and gas giant PetroVietnam is about to shrink production or even cease exploration at four of its oil fields as their expenses have already surpassed prices. The company announced it will lower or possibly halt exploitation of oil fields where expenses are greater than oil prices to avoid losses. The average extraction cost of PetroVietnam is $30-37 a barrel, whereas at four of its oil fields the figure is now more than $60 a barrel.