7 'black swan' events that could upend oil,commodity prices this year

Here are 7 'black swan' events that could upend oil, commodity prices this year, Barclays says

Tae Kim | @firstadopter

3 Hours AgoCNBC.com

 

 

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Barclays' commodities research team shared its top risks for oil, gas and metals investors this year including events such as trade wars, sovereign debt defaults and a Tesla battery breakthrough.

"From Brexit to Trump's election, polling models and analysts were frequently surprised in 2016 by political events that had seemed remote," analyst Michael Cohen wrote in the Thursday report titled "The black swans of 2017."

Nassim Taleb wrote "The Black Swan" in 2007 that focused on the risks of unforeseen tail events.

"We define a commodity 'black swan' as an extreme event or dynamic that market participants, including ourselves, are not currently pricing in. We assess several black swan threats to the supply, demand and transit of commodities that could potentially move markets in 2017," 
Cohen added.

He said global political populism and trade protectionist policies are key risks to the commodity supply chain this year.

Here are seven "possible black swan events" from Barclays and the firm's predictions for commodities prices.




Link: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/05/here-are-7-black-swan-events-that-could-upend-oil-commodity-prices.html?__source=newsletter%7Ceveningbrief