Greed and Capitalism

What kind of society isn't structured on greed? The problem of social organization is how to set up an arrangement under which greed will do the least harm; capitalism is that kind of a system.
- Milton Friedman

Saturday, June 29, 2013

Financial Bubbles

*Note: What assumptions are made for this statement?  Think of the Opportunity costs of missing all the other rising markets and so on.
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If you bought the biggest bubble in equity market history, 1989 Nikkei, you are almost back to even in USD terms: pic.twitter.com/dqq2UTCo72






Source:





Sunday, June 16, 2013

Warren Buffett (1962) talks about a brief stock market drop



Nostalgia anyone???

Published on May 5, 2013

Warren Buffett (1962) talks about a brief stock market drop


Warren Buffett was interviewed by KMTV, Omaha in early June of 1962.

A University of Nebraska at Omaha School of Communication documentary team discovered the film clip in the Nebraska State Historical Society archives in March of 2013.

The clip likely never aired on local television, according to an independent analysis by retired videographers and producers. It is a long clip for broadcast news, it showed no signs of editing, and its condition is extremely good.

The film clip was used in the new documentary, "Mr. Buffett the Teacher" (2013), which describes Warren Buffett's University of Omaha teaching of investing from 1951 through 1962. This is the earliest known visual recording of the financial icon, yet nobody seemed to know it existed.

Category-Education
License-Creative Commons Attribution license (reuse allowed)

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REhg_bv7srM

http://www.youtube.com/user/JeremyHL58?feature=watch









Friday, June 14, 2013

The Virtues of Lists


HBR Blog Network
The Virtues of Lists
by Rosabeth Moss Kanter  |   2:04 PM March 18, 2009
Comments (8)      


When in doubt, ask for directions. When not in doubt, get them anyway.

Boston surgeon Dr. Atul Gawande made headlines with the results of a global study of his important innovation to reduce complications and save lives in the operating room: a simple checklist. This ritual ensures that everyone on the OR is on the same page, so to speak, and that all are responsible for every single step of preparation and precaution. Use of a checklist is so significant that the Institute for Healthcare Improvement, one of the world's leading patient safety advocates, wants 4000 hospitals to adopt this immediately.

Imagine the power of requiring review of the little surgical list. No surgeon who has performed the procedure a thousand times could be so overconfident not to join in this ritual - and a good thing too, because none of us would want to be the body on the operating table the one time Dr. Arrogant forgets just a little something.

Lists are one of my favorite management tools. Lists following meetings confirm the agreements. Lists of guidelines or instructions serve as reminders, and free our minds from the burden of remembering small things instead of thinking of big things. "To do" lists ease the worry that something will fall through the cracks, such as an important phone call or a child's dentist appointment. Lists make it possible for people to back up each other and do things the same way. The best thing about lists is that they help us get where we are going more directly and effectively.

The first time I had the pleasure of flying in a small private charter plane, I watched the pilot open a manual and read it before taking off. My reaction was utter fright. I thought I was with a student pilot who didn't know enough to operate the plane. Omigosh! I kept my eye on the emergency exit for the entire flight. Later I learned that reading the checklist is a requirement for every pilot, no matter how experienced. Presumably for the same reason that Dr. Gawande found that checklists reduce errors in surgical procedures. It is not a blow to professional pride to ask for directions. It is not a sign of weakness to read the instructions.

Lists work well when you make your own, too. When feeling overwhelmed by challenging projects or the juggle of many balls in the air, there is nothing more comforting than making a list. The longer the list, the better! That way, nothing is forgotten, no step left to chance. And we get the enormous satisfaction of checking off small items en route to the bigger goal.
More blog posts by Rosabeth Moss Kanter
More on: Managing yourself, Personal effectiveness, Productivity

ROSABETH MOSS KANTER
Rosabeth Moss Kanter is a professor at Harvard Business School and the
author of Confidence and SuperCorp. Her 2011 HBR article, "How Great Companies Think Differently," won a McKinsey Award for best article. Connect with her
on Facebook or at Twitter.com/RosabethKanter.



Link: http://blogs.hbr.org/kanter/2009/03/the-virtues-of-lists.html



Rising Star Emerges At Berkshire.



By ANUPREETA DAS

When Tracy Britt arrived in Omaha, Neb., in 2009 to meet with Warren Buffett, she brought a Harvard M.B.A., a glittering resume and a boatload of ambition. But she also brought the famed investor a gift to highlight their shared Midwestern roots: a bushel of corn and a batch of tomatoes.


Tracy Britt, 28, has become one of the most influential women within Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. Anupreeta Das reports. Photo: Stu Rosner.

The seed Ms. Britt planted that day yielded quick results: a job for Ms. Britt as Mr. Buffett's financial assistant at Berkshire Hathaway Inc. BRKB +1.81% Almost four years later, it has blossomed further, with Ms. Britt emerging as one of Mr. Buffett's top lieutenants and even serving as chairman of four companies within his $284 billion conglomerate.

Ms. Britt, now 28 years old and more than five decades younger than her boss, occupies a role unlike any other within Berkshire. With an office next to Mr. Buffett's at Berkshire's headquarters, Ms. Britt helps with financial research, accompanies Mr. Buffett to meetings and occasionally drives him around town. The billionaire gradually tacked on additional responsibilities.

The firms in which she serves as chairman, including building-products company Johns Manville Corp. and paint manufacturer Benjamin Moore & Co., total more than $4 billion in annual sales. In March, a few weeks after Berkshire and Brazilian investment firm 3G Capital said they would buy ketchup maker H.J. Heinz & Co. for $23 billion, Mr. Buffett sent Ms. Britt to Brazil, according to people familiar with the matter.

MoneyBeat

Tracy Britt: Bringing Berkshire CEOs Together

The deal was Berkshire's largest acquisition since 2010, and Mr. Buffett wanted her to know more about 3G's operations, including how the Brazilian firm had turned around Burger King Worldwide Inc., BKW +1.95% the people said.

Ms. Britt is one of the executives the 82-year-old Mr. Buffett is grooming for senior positions after he steps down, say people familiar with the matter and Berkshire analysts. And she isn't the first person that he picked out of relative obscurity: His investment managers, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, were little-known hedge-fund managers before Mr. Buffett tapped them to handle big slices of Berkshire money.

Ms. Britt is also one of the most influential women within Berkshire, which has three women directors on a 13-member board and five women CEOs out of 81 operating companies.

Ms. Britt "takes care of all kinds of things that come up," Mr. Buffett told college students in Omaha last month.

Ms. Britt and Mr. Buffett declined to comment on her role at the company.

Others familiar with the company say Ms. Britt is increasingly serving as a conduit between Mr. Buffett and the CEOs of Berkshire's various businesses.

Although Mr. Buffett is famously hands-off when it comes to running Berkshire's far-flung units, some CEOs had requested more interaction with each other, wanting to tap other executives as a resource to learn about management practices and other potential ways to collaborate, according to people familiar with those discussions. Ms. Britt facilitated some of those discussions and arranged Berkshire's first-ever CEO roundtable on the sidelines of the annual meeting in May.

"She's got this wealth of information about what's going on at the Berkshire portfolio companies," said Sam Taylor, chief executive of Oriental Trading Co., an online retailer that Berkshire bought in November. "She knows exactly what's going on and where Warren's head is at."

Mr. Taylor, 52 years old, said Ms. Britt is "wise beyond her years."

Others say she always has stood out among her peers.

Janet Hanson, the founder of 85 Broads, a global networking community for women in business and finance, remembers Ms. Britt from when she interned at Ms. Hanson's investment firm as an undergraduate. "She had some sort of internal guiding system that was propelling her forward," Ms. Hanson said. "She was on rocket fuel…this was a gal who was going to get what she wanted."

That summer, Ms. Hanson asked her interns to pick stocks they knew as consumers and thought were good investments. While some of her peers picked highfliers like BlackBerry BB.T +5.98% maker Research In Motion Ltd., among Ms. Britt's picks was Anglo-Dutch consumer company Unilever ULVR.LN -0.27% PLC, the maker of Dove skin-care products and Lipton tea, the type of nuts-and-bolts company that Mr. Buffett has acquired at Berkshire.

Ms. Britt grew up on a family farm—Britt's Garden Acres, outside of Manhattan, Kan.—that produces more than 40 different types of fruits and vegetables ranging from radishes to rhubarb.

She first met Mr. Buffett in 2006 after she arranged a trip to Omaha with Harvard classmates from an organization she co-founded, called Smart Woman Securities, which helps women learn about investing.

Some analysts and Berkshire observers said they see Ms. Britt becoming a top Berkshire executive in the next decade, potentially performing managerial functions such as fixing troubled businesses or negotiating deals, similar to what David Sokol previously did.

Mr. Sokol is a former Berkshire business manager who was considered a protégé of Mr. Buffett's. He resigned in 2011 after disclosures that he had personally bought shares in chemicals company Lubrizol Corp. not long before recommending that Mr. Buffett buy it. Regulators investigated but decided this year not to take any action against Mr. Sokol. Mr. Sokol's lawyer has said that his client didn't violate the law or any Berkshire policy at any time, or intend to personally profit at the expense of his former employer or its shareholders.

"She's stepped into the role of Sokol," said Robert Miles, who teaches a course on Mr. Buffett's investing style and has written three books on Berkshire.

For Ms. Britt, none of this is a complete surprise.

In a recent blog post for Lean In, an online community created by Facebook Inc. FB -0.17% Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg as part of her campaign to get women to pursue their ambitions, Ms. Britt shared a line from a business-school assignment she had penned to imagine where she would be at the 10-year reunion. She wrote, "My goal is to work with a great investor, who even more importantly is a wonderful teacher and mentor."

Write to Anupreeta Das at anupreeta.das@wsj.com

A version of this article appeared June 11, 2013, on page C1 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Rising Star Emerges At Berkshire.




Source:  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324904004578539443761846024.html?cb=logged0.9931135563137516


Entrepreneurs


Stanford Graduate School of Business

5 Attitudes of Successful Entrepreneurs 


“Entrepreneurs don’t need to be impulsive, head-strong, bombastic, or have operating experience,” shared Professor Irv Grousbeck in his “Last Lecture” talk with the Stanford GSB Class of 2013.


 5 attitudes successful entrepreneurs possess:  


1. An unending dissatisfaction with the status quo
Entrepreneurs are not happy with what’s at hand and they believe they can do something better.

2. A healthy self-confidence
Entrepreneurs must have a willingness to be lonely, to make public mistakes, and to have the buck stop with them.

3. Responsible confidence  
Entrepreneurs feel good about what they are doing, but always know that they could do more. They are always willing to stretch themselves.

4. Concern with detail
Very few successful people are broad-brush in all aspects of their lives.

5. A tolerance for ambiguity
Not to be confused with a love of risks, this willingness to accept an uncertain future is at the core of being an entrepreneur. Entrepreneurs won’t know if they’ll have an income tomorrow, and they’re willing to give up a corporate work environment and comfortable routines.







The official Tumblr for Stanford GSB  

Source:  http://stanfordbusiness.tumblr.com/post/52905655004/5-attitudes-of-successful-entrepreneurs-from-professor




Quotes - Gary Hamel



What drives success? Over next 12 mos: execution. Over next 2 yrs: strategy. Over next 5 yrs: Competencies + platforms. Beyond that: Values.

- Gary Hamel
@profhamel
Occasional professor. Management renegade. Open innovation fan.
Northern California · managementexchange.com
profhamel 10 Jun



Loved opening line from Apple's WWDC: "The first question we ask is, what do we want people to feel?" Great starting point for innovation.


profhamel 25 May
Bureaucracy destroys accountability, particularly in gov't. We are vasals in a hyra-headed administrative state. http://wapo.st/11fOHAL

profhamel 9 Feb
In my book, "What Matters Now," I drew a distinction between farmer values and banker values. This is funnier:  http://on.mktw.net/YD4kTQ



profhamel 25 Jan
If Apple sustained its 5-year rev. growth rate for next 5 yrs, it would be a $760b co. in 2017. Investors have figured out this is unlikely.
Expand

 Gary Hamel ‏@profhamel 18 Jan
I doubt a more important business book will be published this year than "Conscious Capitalism" by Mackey and Sisodia. http://amzn.to/WN1atA
 View summary


 Gary Hamel ‏@profhamel 3 Jan
Great piece on how fiscal irresponsibility leads to economic decline. Also a warning on the dangers of centralization. http://bit.ly/


Monday, June 3, 2013

Student of the Market

Statistician (Bayesian tendencies), enthusiastic communicator of anything I feel I understand about risk, probability, chance, uncertainty, ignorance and doubt.



Link: http://www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/Dept/People/Spiegelhalter/davids.html




Sunday, June 2, 2013

Solar-Powered Kettle Chips Will Help Test Renewable Energy Batteries In Salem

GAME-CHANGER..... Solar power needs to be stored for off-times like night or cloudy days to be competitive with the Grid. ................. 


ENVIRONMENT | ENERGY

Solar-Powered Kettle Chips Will Help Test Renewable Energy Batteries In Salem
Ecotrope | May 31, 2013 11:08 a.m. | Updated: May 31, 2013 1:16 p.m.


CONTRIBUTED BY:
Cassandra Profita
Courtesy of Portland General Electric


The Salem Smart Power Center opens today with the battery power of 1,440 electric cars. A room full of batteries, shown here, will be used to store renewable energy when the wind is blowing and the sun is shining so it can be used later when power is in short supply.

Kettle Brand has enough solar panels on the roof of its Salem plant to make 250,000 bags of Kettle Chips. But they only work when the sun is out.

When clouds block the sun from reaching solar panels, the renewable power generation at the Kettle Chips plant takes a dive.

A new smart grid project launching today in Salem is aiming to fill the gaps in solar power at the Kettle Chips plant with renewable energy stored in a room full of lithium ion batteries. The batteries are housed in a new facility called the Salem Smart Power Center, which can store up to 5 megawatts of electricity – enough to power 3,500 homes. It's a breakthrough in smart grid technology, though it's just starting up as a demonstration project.

"This is the first of its kind in the nation and in the industry," said Kevin Whitener, smart grid project manager for Portland General Electric. "We're used to calling upon energy sources when we need them, but sun and wind aren't great for that. With this project, we can take that sun and wind energy and store it so it can be available when our customers want to use it."


Courtesy of Kettle Foods
The Kettle Foods potato chip factory in Salem has 616 solar panels on its roof, but the amount of power they produce fluctuates with the availability of the sun.
PGE's Salem Smart Power Center holds promise for resolving the Northwest springtime power conflicts between wind and hydropower, when dams are wind farms together produce more power than the region needs. It could also store wind power generated at night, when power demand is low, and release it during the day when power use peaks. Long term, it could help wind and solar power compete with other sources of electricity that offer a steadier, more reliable source of power.

Battery storage could save utilities money at times when they would otherwise have to shut down wind turbines, sell renewable power at a discount when it's not needed or buy extra power to meet high electricity demand, Whitener said. Those savings, and any income from selling stored power at a higher price when it's most needed could justify the $23 million cost of building the storage facility.

PGE will be working with the Kettle Chips plant to test whether battery power can fill in for solar panels when the sun isn't shining.



The main production facility for Kettle Chips is in Salem.

Kettle Brand has had a 114 kilowatt solar array on the roof of its potato chip plant since 2003. You can see how the power supply from the plant's 616 solar panels fluctuates in the graphs generated by this online monitor.

The solar signal from those panels will tell the Salem Smart Power Center when to release electricity from its batteries to make up for dips in solar supply.

"The output from that system is simply coming and going as the sun rises and sets or the clouds pass over the factory," said Whitener. "The solar output from that system is not always 114 kilowatts. It varies all over the place – from zero up to 114 kilowatts.

"We can have a bright sunny day but you can still get that one cloud that passes overhead and causes that power drops down to zero in a matter of seconds. What do you do with those resources that come and go in a one-second time frame? That's what our energy storage facility can do. As solar output drops down for some random period of time, we can fill in that gap. It smooths out the curve and makes it look like it was steady."

The Smart Power Center will also work with the state of Oregon to use batteries to keep electricity flowing during power outages, with help from the state's back-up generators.






Source:  http://www.opb.org/news/article/solar-powered-kettle-chips-will-test-renewable-energy-storage-in-salem/